Alternative representations of the Aalen-Johansen estimator of the state occupation probabilities in multi-state models

Yan T., Geskus R., Putter H.

Multi-state models are a flexible framework for analysing processes that evolve through different states over time, with applications in medicine, demography, and economics, among others. A key quantity of interest is the state occupation probability, commonly estimated by the Aalen-Johansen estimator. In this article, we provide alternative representations of this estimator by extending both the redistribution-to-the-right algorithm and the inverse probability of censoring weighted (IPCW) empirical average representation to the general multi-state setting. We show that these formulations are mathematically equivalent to the Aalen-Johansen estimator, offering new interpretative insights and practical understanding.

DOI

10.1111/stan.70035

Type

Journal article

Publication Date

2026-08-01T00:00:00+00:00

Volume

80

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