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The COVID-19 pandemic has seen some extraordinary medical feats and achievements, which are being rightly celebrated. Researchers at Oxford University have been at the forefront of global efforts, including the first human trials of a COVID-19 vaccine, and the world’s biggest trial of potential COVID-19 treatments, RECOVERY.
Modelling the COVID-19 pandemic in context: an international participatory approach
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on multiple levels of society. Not only has the pandemic completely overwhelmed some health systems but it has also changed how scientific evidence is shared and increased the pace at which such evidence is published and consumed, by scientists, policymakers and the wider public. More significantly, the pandemic has created tremendous challenges for decision-makers, who have had to implement highly disruptive containment measures with very little empirical scientific evidence to support their decision-making process. Given this lack of data, predictive mathematical models have played an increasingly prominent role. In high-income countries, there is a long-standing history of established research groups advising policymakers, whereas a general lack of translational capacity has meant that mathematical models frequently remain inaccessible to policymakers in low-income and middle-income countries. Here, we describe a participatory approach to modelling that aims to circumvent this gap. Our approach involved the creation of an international group of infectious disease modellers and other public health experts, which culminated in the establishment of the COVID-19 Modelling (CoMo) Consortium. Here, we describe how the consortium was formed, the way it functions, the mathematical model used and, crucially, the high degree of engagement fostered between CoMo Consortium members and their respective local policymakers and ministries of health.
Potential health and economic impacts of dexamethasone treatment for patients with COVID-19
AbstractDexamethasone can reduce mortality in hospitalised COVID-19 patients needing oxygen and ventilation by 18% and 36%, respectively. Here, we estimate the potential number of lives saved and life years gained if this treatment were to be rolled out in the UK and globally, as well as the cost-effectiveness of implementing this intervention. Assuming SARS-CoV-2 exposure levels of 5% to 15%, we estimate that, for the UK, approximately 12,000 (4,250 - 27,000) lives could be saved between July and December 2020. Assuming that dexamethasone has a similar effect size in settings where access to oxygen therapies is limited, this would translate into approximately 650,000 (240,000 - 1,400,000) lives saved globally over the same time period. If dexamethasone acts differently in these settings, the impact could be less than half of this value. To estimate the full potential of dexamethasone in the global fight against COVID-19, it is essential to perform clinical research in settings with limited access to oxygen and/or ventilators, for example in low- and middle-income countries.
Isoniazid resistance, mycobacterial genotype and outcome in Vietnamese adults with tuberculous meningitis.
SettingCentre for Tropical Diseases, a 500-bed hospital for infectious diseases in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.ObjectiveThe factors that determine outcome in adults with tuberculous meningitis are poorly understood. The objective of the study was to investigate the relationship between admission clinical features, HIV infection, drug resistance, mycobacterial genotype and outcome in adults with tuberculous meningitis.DesignClinical and laboratory data were recorded prospectively for 56 Vietnamese adults with tuberculous meningitis confirmed by culture of cerebrospinal fluid. Variables associated with in-hospital mortality, IV infection, drug resistance and microbial genotype were assessed by univariate and multivariate analysis.ResultsAdmission coma score independently predicted death in hospital (OR 0.73, 95%CI 0.61-0.87, P = 0.001). HIV-infected adults with tuberculous meningitis were more likely to be infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis resistant to isoniazid (P = 0.011) and streptomycin (P = 0.002). Isoniazid resistance, streptomycin resistance, HIV infection and microbial genotype were not associated with increased in-hospital mortality.ConclusionTreatment of tuberculous meningitis before the onset of coma saves lives. Resistance to isoniazid and/or streptomycin does not appear to affect outcome.
Cellular stress and injury responses in the brains of adult Vietnamese patients with fatal Plasmodium falciparum malaria
Immunohistochemical techniques have been used to investigate specific patterns of potentially reversible cellular injury, DNA damage, and apoptosis in the brainstems of Vietnamese patients who died of severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria. The degree and pattern of neuronal and glial stress responses were compared between patients with cerebral and non‐cerebral malaria (CM), and appropriate non‐malaria infected controls. The following markers were examined: (i) heat shock protein 70 (HSP70), for reversible injury; (ii) heme oxygenase‐1, for oxidative stress; (iii & iv) two DNA‐repair proteins, poly(ADP) ribose polymerase (PARP) and DNA‐dependent protein kinase catalytic subunit; (v) poly(ADP) ribose, an end‐product of PARP activity; and (vi) caspase‐3‐active, for apoptosis. Stress responses were found in a range of cell types as reflected by the widespread expression of HSP70. Oxidative stress predominated in the vicinity of vessels and haemorrhages. Some degree of DNA damage was found in the majority of malaria patients, but the distribution and frequency of the damage was much less than that observed in controls with irreversible neuronal injury. Similarly, caspase‐3‐active expression, as a measure of apoptosis, was no higher in the majority of malaria patients than the negative control cases, although 40% of CM cases expressed caspase‐3‐active in a small number of neurones of the pontine nuclei or within swollen axons of the pontocerebellar and corticospinal tracts. In conclusion, cells within the brainstem of all patients who died from severe malaria showed staining patterns indicative of considerable stress response and reversible neuronal injury. There was no evidence for a specific pattern of widespread irreversible cell damage in those patients with cerebral malaria.
AN ULTRASTRUCTURAL STUDY OF THE BRAIN IN FATAL PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM MALARIA
Cerebral malaria (CM) is a major cause of death in severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria. We present quantitative electron microscopic findings of the neuropathologic features in a prospective clinicopathologic study of 65 patients who died of severe malaria in Thailand and Vietnam. Sequestration of parasitized red blood cells (PRBCs) in cerebral microvessels was significantly higher in the brains of patients with CM compared with those with non-cerebral malaria (NCM) in all parts of the brain (cerebrum, cerebellum, and medulla oblongata). There was a hierarchy of sequestration with more in the cerebrum and cerebellum than the brain stem. When cerebral sequestration was compared with the peripheral parasitemia pre mortem, there were 26.6 times more PRBCs in the brain microvasculature than in the peripheral blood. The sequestration index was significantly higher in CM patients (median = 50.7) than in NCM patients (median = 6.9) (P = 0.042). The degree of sequestration of P. falciparum-infected erythrocytes in cerebral microvessels is quantitatively associated with pre-mortem coma.
Clinical and neurophysiological study of the effects of multiple doses of artemisinin on brain-stem function in Vietnamese patients.
The qinghaosu (artemisinin) group of drugs is the most important new class of antimalarials developed in the last fifty years. Although there has been no clinical evidence of neurotoxicity, an unusual pattern of damage to specific brain-stem nuclei has been reported in experimental animals receiving high doses of arteether or artemether. Detailed clinical examinations, audiometry, and brain stem auditory evoked potentials (BSAEPs) were assessed in 242 Vietnamese subjects who had previously received up to 21 antimalarial treatment courses of artemisinin or artesunate alone and 108 controls from the same location who had not received these drugs. There was no evidence of a drug effect on the clinical or neurophysiological parameters assessed. In this population there was no clinical or neurophysiological evidence of brain-stem toxicity that could be attributed to exposure to artemisinin or artesunate.
Nasal Carriage in Vietnamese Children of Streptococcus pneumoniae Resistant to Multiple Antimicrobial Agents
ABSTRACT Resistance to antimicrobial agents in Streptococcus pneumoniae is increasing rapidly in many Asian countries. There is little recent information concerning resistance levels in Vietnam. A prospective study of pneumococcal carriage in 911 urban and rural Vietnamese children, of whom 44% were nasal carriers, was performed. Carriage was more common in children <5 years old than in those ≥5 years old (192 of 389 [49.4%] versus 212 of 522 [40.6%]; P , 0.01). A total of 136 of 399 isolates (34%) had intermediate susceptibility to penicillin (MIC, 0.1 to 1 mg/liter), and 76 of 399 isolates (19%) showed resistance (MIC, >1.0 mg/liter). A total of 54 of 399 isolates (13%) had intermediate susceptibility to ceftriaxone, and 3 of 399 isolates (1%) were resistant. Penicillin resistance was 21.7 (95% confidence interval, 7.0 to 67.6) times more common in urban than in rural children (35 versus 2%; P , <0.001). More than 40% of isolates from urban children were also resistant to erythromycin, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, chloramphenicol, and tetracycline. Penicillin resistance was independently associated with an urban location when the age of the child was controlled for. Multidrug resistance (resistance to three or more antimicrobial agent groups) was present in 32% of isolates overall but in 39% of isolates with intermediate susceptibility to penicillin and 86% of isolates with penicillin resistance. The predominant serotypes of the S. pneumoniae isolates were 19, 23, 14, 6, and 18. Almost half of the penicillin-resistant isolates serotyped were serotype 23, and these isolates were often multidrug resistant. This study suggests that resistance to penicillin and other antimicrobial agents is common in carriage isolates of S. pneumoniae from children in Vietnam.