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The Infectious Disease Data Observatory and The Global Health Network have signed a Wellcome joint statement, along with the Gates Foundation, Lancet, PLOS and others, to help ensure data on the current Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo is free to access and shared rapidly.
Burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance in low-income and middle-income countries avertible by existing interventions: an evidence review and modelling analysis.
National action plans enumerate many interventions as potential strategies to reduce the burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance (AMR). However, knowledge of the benefits achievable by specific approaches is needed to inform policy making, especially in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) with substantial AMR burden and low health-care system capacity. In a modelling analysis, we estimated that improving infection prevention and control programmes in LMIC health-care settings could prevent at least 337 000 (95% CI 250 200-465 200) AMR-associated deaths annually. Ensuring universal access to high-quality water, sanitation, and hygiene services would prevent 247 800 (160 000-337 800) AMR-associated deaths and paediatric vaccines 181 500 (153 400-206 800) AMR-associated deaths, from both direct prevention of resistant infections and reductions in antibiotic consumption. These estimates translate to prevention of 7·8% (5·6-11·0) of all AMR-associated mortality in LMICs by infection prevention and control, 5·7% (3·7-8·0) by water, sanitation, and hygiene, and 4·2% (3·4-5·1) by vaccination interventions. Despite the continuing need for research and innovation to overcome limitations of existing approaches, our findings indicate that reducing global AMR burden by 10% by the year 2030 is achievable with existing interventions. Our results should guide investments in public health interventions with the greatest potential to reduce AMR burden.
The spectrum of neutralizing and non-neutralizing anti-FVIII antibodies in a nationwide cohort of 788 persons with hemophilia A
ObjectivesAnti-factor VIII (FVIII) antibodies have been reported to exhibit both neutralizing and non-neutralizing characteristics. This is the first study investigating the full spectrum of FVIII-specific antibodies, including non-neutralizing antibodies, very-low titer inhibitors, and inhibitors, in a large nationwide population of persons with hemophilia A of all severities.MethodsAll persons with hemophilia A (mild (FVIII > 5–40 IU/dL)/moderate [FVIII 1–5 IU/dL)/severe (FVIII < 1 IU/dL)] with an available plasma sample who participated in the sixth Hemophilia in the Netherlands study between 2018 and 2019 were included. The presence of anti-FVIII antibodies of the immunoglobulin A, M, and G isotypes and IgG subclasses, along with antibody titer levels, were assessed using direct-binding ELISAs. FVIII specificity was assessed using a competition-based ELISA approach. The inhibitor status was determined using the Nijmegen ultra-sensitive Bethesda assay (NusBA) and the Nijmegen Bethesda assay (NBA).ResultsIn total, 788 persons with hemophilia A (336 (42.6%) mild, 123 (15.6%) moderate, 329 (41.8%) severe hemophilia) were included. The median age was 45 years (IQR 24–60), and the majority (50.9%) had over 150 exposure days to FVIII concentrates. Within our population, 144 (18.3%) individuals had non-neutralizing FVIII-specific antibodies, 10 (1.3%) had very low-titer inhibitors (NusBA positive; NBA negative), and 13 (1.6%) had inhibitors (both NusBA and NBA positive). IgG1 was the most abundant FVIII-specific antibody subclass, and the highest titer levels were found for IgG4. In individuals without a reported history of inhibitor development, no clear differences were observed in antibody patterns between those who were minimally or highly exposed to FVIII concentrates. IgG4 subclass antibodies were only observed in persons with a reported history of FVIII inhibitor or in those with a currently detected (very low-titer) inhibitor.ConclusionIn this cross-sectional study, we identified non-neutralizing antibodies in a relatively large proportion of persons with hemophilia A. In contrast, in our population, consisting of persons highly exposed to FVIII concentrates, (very low-titer) inhibitors were detected only in a small proportion of persons, reflecting a well-tolerized population. Hence, our findings suggest that only a small subpopulation of non-neutralizing FVIII-specific antibodies is associated with clinically relevant inhibitors.
Legume-supplemented feed for children hospitalised with severe malnutrition: A Phase II trial.
Children hospitalised with severe malnutrition have high mortality and readmission rates post-discharge. Current milk-based formulations target restoring ponderal growth but not modification of gut barrier integrety or microbiome which increase risk of gram-negative sepsis and poor outcomes. We propose that legume-based feeds rich in fermentable carbohydrates will promote better gut health and improve overall outcomes.We conducted an open-label Phase II trial at Mbale and Soroti Regional Referral Hospitals, Uganda involving 160 children aged 6 months-5 years with severe malnutrition (mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) <11.5cm and/or nutritional oedema). Children were randomised to a lactose-free, chickpea-enriched legume paste feed (LF) (n=80) versus WHO standard F75/F100 feeds (n=80). Co-primary outcomes were change in MUAC and mortality to Day 90. Secondary outcomes included weight gain (>5 g/kg/day), de novo development of diarrhoea, time to diarrhoea and oedema resolution.Day 90 MUAC increase was marginally lower in LF versus WHO arm (1.1 cm (IQR 1.1) vs 1.4cm (IQR 1.40) p=0.09; Day 90 mortality was similar 11/80 (13.8%) vs 12/80 (15%) respectively OR 0.91 (95% CI 0.40 -2.07) p=0.83. There were no differences in any of the other secondary outcomes. Owing to initial poor palatability of the legume feed 10 children switched to WHO feeds. Per protocol analysis indicated a trend to lower Day 90 mortality and readmission rates in the legume feed (6/60: (10%) and (2/60: 3%) vs WHO feeds (12/71: 17.5%) and (4/71: 6%) respectively.Further refinement of legume feeds and clinical trials are warrented given the poor outcomes in children with severe malnutrition.Trial registration ISRCTN 10309022.
Malaria epidemiology, surveillance and response for elimination in Lao PDR
Abstract Background Lao PDR has made significant progress in malaria control. The National Strategic Plans outline ambitious targets, aiming for the elimination of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax malaria from all northern provinces by 2025 and national elimination by 2030. This article presents an overview of malaria epidemiology, surveillance, and response systems in Lao PDR, emphasizing experiences and achievements in transmission reduction. Methods Data on surveillance, monitoring and evaluation systems, human resources, infrastructure, and community malaria knowledge during 2010–2020 were systematically gathered from the national program and relevant documents. The collected information was synthesized, and discussions on challenges and future prospects were provided. Results Malaria control and elimination activities in Lao PDR were implemented at various levels, with a focus on health facility catchment areas. There has been significant progress in reducing malaria transmission throughout the country. Targeted interventions, such as case management, vector control, and community engagement, using stratification of control interventions by catchment areas have contributed to the decline in malaria cases. In elimination areas, active surveillance strategies, including case and foci investigation, are implemented to identify and stop transmission. The surveillance system has facilitated timely detection and response to malaria cases, enabling these targeted interventions in higher-risk areas. Conclusions The malaria surveillance and response system in Lao PDR has played a crucial role in reducing transmission and advancing the country towards elimination. Challenges such as importation, drug resistance, and sustaining support require ongoing efforts. Further strengthening surveillance, improving access to services, and addressing transmission determinants are key areas of focus to achieve malaria elimination and enhance population health in Lao PDR.
Safety and immunogenicity of varied doses of R21/Matrix-M™ vaccine at three years follow-up: A phase 1b age de-escalation, dose-escalation trial in adults, children, and infants in Kilifi-Kenya.
BackgroundFalciparum malaria remains a global health problem. Two vaccines, based on the circumsporozoite antigen, are available. RTS, S/AS01 was recommended for use in 2021 following the advice of the World Health Organisation (WHO) Strategic Advisory Group of Experts (SAGE) on Immunization and WHO Malaria Policy Advisory Group (MPAG). It has since been pre-qualified in 2022 by the WHO. R21 is similar to RTS, S/AS01, and recently licensed in Nigeria, Ghana and Burkina Faso following Phase 3 trial results.MethodsWe conducted a Phase 1b age de-escalation, dose escalation bridging study after a change in the manufacturing process for R21. We recruited healthy adults and children and used a three dose primary vaccination series with a booster dose at 1-2 years. Variable doses of R21 and adjuvant (Matrix-M ™) were administered at 10µgR21/50 µg Matrix-M™, 5µgR21/25µg Matrix-M™ and 5µgR21/50µg Matrix-M™ to 20 adults, 20 children, and 51 infants.ResultsSelf-limiting adverse events were reported relating to the injection site and mild systemic symptoms. Two serious adverse events were reported, neither linked to vaccination. High levels of IgG antibodies to the circumsporozoite antigen were induced, and geometric mean titres in infants, the target group, were 1.1 (0.9 to 1.3) EU/mL at day 0, 10175 (7724 to 13404) EU/mL at day 84 and (following a booster dose at day 421) 6792 (5310 to 8687) EU/mL at day 456.ConclusionR21/Matrix-M™ is safe, and immunogenic when given at varied doses with the peak immune response seen in infants 28 days after a three dose primary vaccination series given four weeks apart. Antibody responses were restored 28 days after a 4 th dose given one year post a three dose primary series in the young children and infants.RegistrationClinicaltrials.gov (NCT03580824; 9 th of July 2018; Pan African Clinical Trials Registry (PACTR202105682956280; 17 th May 2021).
Empowering Global AMR Research Community: Interactive GIS dashboards for AMR data analysis and informed decision-making
Background Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) is a critical global public health concern, demanding effective tools for research, data analysis, and decision-making. This study proposes a groundbreaking approach to empower the global AMR research community by introducing interactive Geographic Information System (GIS) dashboards. These dashboards aim to facilitate comprehensive data analysis of AMR across multiple countries, providing insights into antimicrobial usage (AMU), resistance patterns, and geographic distribution. Methods The novel approach involves the development of GIS dashboards that integrate and harmonize data from diverse sources, including clinical laboratories, surveillance networks, and public health agencies. Objective 1 focuses on creating a dashboard encompassing all countries, offering comprehensive data analysis capabilities and visualization tools. Objective 2 entails building a focused dashboard specifically for Kenya and Uganda, allowing for comparative analysis of AMR in these regions. Objective 3 involves the generation of a simulated dataset for Kampala, Uganda, addressing data limitations in that specific area. Results The GIS dashboards serve as powerful tools for visualizing and analyzing AMR-related datasets, providing stakeholders with a comprehensive view of the global AMR landscape. These dashboards offer valuable insights into antimicrobial usage, resistance patterns, and geographical distribution. The centralized platform facilitates data exploration and analysis, aiding researchers, policymakers, and healthcare professionals in making informed decisions to combat AMR. Conclusions In conclusion, the study demonstrates that the developed GIS dashboards empower stakeholders by providing valuable insights and informed decision-making capabilities. The dashboards serve as essential tools for addressing the global challenge of AMR, allowing for a deeper understanding of the problem and informing effective strategies. The approach outlined in this study has the potential to significantly contribute to the ongoing efforts to combat AMR on a global scale.
A scoping review of ethics review processes during public health emergencies in Africa.
BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic forced governments, multilateral public health organisations and research institutions to undertake research quickly to inform their responses to the pandemic. Most COVID-19-related studies required swift approval, creating ethical and practical challenges for regulatory authorities and researchers. In this paper, we examine the landscape of ethics review processes in Africa during public health emergencies (PHEs).MethodsWe searched four electronic databases (Web of Science, PUBMED, MEDLINE Complete, and CINAHL) to identify articles describing ethics review processes during public health emergencies and/or pandemics. We selected and reviewed those articles that were focused on Africa. We charted the data from the retrieved articles including the authors and year of publication, title, country and disease(s) reference, broad areas of (ethical) consideration, paper type, and approach.ResultsOf an initial 4536 records retrieved, we screened the titles and abstracts of 1491 articles, and identified 72 articles for full review. Nine articles were selected for inclusion. Of these nine articles, five referenced West African countries including Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone, and experiences linked to the Ebola virus disease. Two articles focused on South Africa and Kenya, while the other two articles discussed more general experiences and pitfalls of ethics review during PHEs in Africa more broadly. We found no articles published on ethics review processes in Africa before the 2014 Ebola outbreak, and only a few before the COVID-19 outbreak. Although guidelines on protocol review and approval processes for PHEs were more frequently discussed after the 2014 Ebola outbreak, these did not focus on Africa specifically.ConclusionsThere is a gap in the literature about ethics review processes and preparedness within Africa during PHEs. This paper underscores the importance of these processes to inform practices that facilitate timely, context-relevant research that adequately recognises and reinforces human dignity within the quest to advance scientific knowledge about diseases. This is important to improve fast responses to PHEs, reduce mortality and morbidity, and enhance the quality of care before, during, and after pandemics.
An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale.
BackgroundLymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging.MethodsWe developed a computationally feasible framework for providing subnational projections for LF across 44 sub-Saharan African countries using ensemble models, guided by historical control data, to allow assessment of the role of subnational heterogeneities in global goal achievement. Projected scenarios include ongoing annual treatment from 2018 to 2030, enhanced coverage, and biannual treatment.ResultsOur projections suggest that progress is likely to continue well. However, highly endemic locations currently deploying strategies with the lower World Health Organization recommended coverage (65%) and frequency (annual) are expected to have slow decreases in prevalence. Increasing intervention frequency or coverage can accelerate progress by up to 5 or 6 years, respectively.ConclusionsWhile projections based on baseline data have limitations, our methodological advancements provide assessments of potential bottlenecks for the global goals for LF arising from subnational heterogeneities. In particular, areas with high baseline prevalence may face challenges in achieving the 2030 goals, extending the "tail" of interventions. Enhancing intervention frequency and/or coverage will accelerate progress. Our approach facilitates preimplementation assessments of the impact of local interventions and is applicable to other regions and neglected tropical diseases.
Subnational Projections of Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination Targets in Ethiopia to Support National Level Policy.
BackgroundLymphatic filariasis (LF) is a debilitating, poverty-promoting, neglected tropical disease (NTD) targeted for worldwide elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) by 2030. Evaluating progress towards this target for national programmes is challenging, due to differences in disease transmission and interventions at the subnational level. Mathematical models can help address these challenges by capturing spatial heterogeneities and evaluating progress towards LF elimination and how different interventions could be leveraged to achieve elimination by 2030.MethodsHere we used a novel approach to combine historical geo-spatial disease prevalence maps of LF in Ethiopia with 3 contemporary disease transmission models to project trends in infection under different intervention scenarios at subnational level.ResultsOur findings show that local context, particularly the coverage of interventions, is an important determinant for the success of control and elimination programmes. Furthermore, although current strategies seem sufficient to achieve LF elimination by 2030, some areas may benefit from the implementation of alternative strategies, such as using enhanced coverage or increased frequency, to accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.ConclusionsThe combination of geospatial disease prevalence maps of LF with transmission models and intervention histories enables the projection of trends in infection at the subnational level under different control scenarios in Ethiopia. This approach, which adapts transmission models to local settings, may be useful to inform the design of optimal interventions at the subnational level in other LF endemic regions.
Metformin as adjunctive therapy in combination with multidrug treatment for multibacillary leprosy: A protocol for a randomized double-blind, controlled Phase 2 trial in Indonesia (MetLep Trial)
Background The clinical management of leprosy is complicated by leprosy reactions (LR) causing irreversible nerve damage and disabilities. LR often require long-term use of corticosteroids causing serious side effects. Adjunct host-directed therapy (HDT) is a potentially attractive strategy in leprosy to prevent LR and associated immunopathology, modulate immunological memory that protects against recurrence, and thereby reduce nerve damage, disability and corticosteroid-associated morbidities. Metformin, a well-tolerated, safe and cheap anti-hyperglycaemic drug, is repurposed as HDT in auto-immune and infectious diseases, like tuberculosis (TB). Metformin use in people with diabetes is associated with reduced risks of TB-infection, progression to active TB, treatment failure and TB-mortality. Given the similarities both mycobacteria share, we hypothesize that among persons with multibacillary (MB) leprosy, adjunctive metformin may prevent/mitigate LR. Methods We will perform a double-blind controlled proof-of-concept trial in which people with newly diagnosed multibacillary leprosy will be randomized (1:1) to metformin hydrochloride 1000mg extended release once daily versus placebo for 24 weeks in addition to standard-of-care WHO MB multidrug therapy (MDT) during 48 weeks. We aim to enrol 166 participants aged between 18 and 65 years, across five clinical sites in two leprosy endemic areas in Indonesia. Primary outcomes are the proportion of participants experiencing a LR and the frequency of (serious) adverse events. Secondary outcomes are the severity and time to first LR, the cumulative corticosteroid usage, and quality of life. The total study follow-up is 48 weeks. Discussion LR signify the most important cause of irreversible nerve damage leading to anatomical deformities and disabilities, imposing a social and financial burden on those affected. Our study aims to evaluate the efficacy, tolerability and safety of adjunct metformin added to MDT in persons with multibacillary leprosy, and explore its effects on clinical and immunological outcomes. ClinicalTrials.gov registration NCT05243654 (17/02/2022)
Two biases in incubation time estimation related to exposure
Abstract Background Estimation of the SARS-CoV-2 incubation time distribution is hampered by incomplete data about infection. We discuss two biases that may result from incorrect handling of such data. Notified cases may recall recent exposures more precisely (differential recall). This creates bias if the analysis is restricted to observations with well-defined exposures, as longer incubation times are more likely to be excluded. Another bias occurred in the initial estimates based on data concerning travellers from Wuhan. Only individuals who developed symptoms after their departure were included, leading to under-representation of cases with shorter incubation times (left truncation). This issue was not addressed in the analyses performed in the literature. Methods We performed simulations and provide a literature review to investigate the amount of bias in estimated percentiles of the SARS-CoV-2 incubation time distribution. Results Depending on the rate of differential recall, restricting the analysis to a subset of narrow exposure windows resulted in underestimation in the median and even more in the 95th percentile. Failing to account for left truncation led to an overestimation of multiple days in both the median and the 95th percentile. Conclusion We examined two overlooked sources of bias concerning exposure information that the researcher engaged in incubation time estimation needs to be aware of.
Feasibility, safety, and impact of the RTS,S/AS01E malaria vaccine when implemented through national immunisation programmes: evaluation of cluster-randomised introduction of the vaccine in Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi.
BackgroundThe RTS,S/AS01E malaria vaccine (RTS,S) was introduced by national immunisation programmes in Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi in 2019 in large-scale pilot schemes. We aimed to address questions about feasibility and impact, and to assess safety signals that had been observed in the phase 3 trial that included an excess of meningitis and cerebral malaria cases in RTS,S recipients, and the possibility of an excess of deaths among girls who received RTS,S than in controls, to inform decisions about wider use.MethodsIn this prospective evaluation, 158 geographical clusters (66 districts in Ghana; 46 sub-counties in Kenya; and 46 groups of immunisation clinic catchment areas in Malawi) were randomly assigned to early or delayed introduction of RTS,S, with three doses to be administered between the ages of 5 months and 9 months and a fourth dose at the age of approximately 2 years. Primary outcomes of the evaluation, planned over 4 years, were mortality from all causes except injury (impact), hospital admission with severe malaria (impact), hospital admission with meningitis or cerebral malaria (safety), deaths in girls compared with boys (safety), and vaccination coverage (feasibility). Mortality was monitored in children aged 1-59 months throughout the pilot areas. Surveillance for meningitis and severe malaria was established in eight sentinel hospitals in Ghana, six in Kenya, and four in Malawi. Vaccine uptake was measured in surveys of children aged 12-23 months about 18 months after vaccine introduction. We estimated that sufficient data would have accrued after 24 months to evaluate each of the safety signals and the impact on severe malaria in a pooled analysis of the data from the three countries. We estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) by comparing the ratio of the number of events in children age-eligible to have received at least one dose of the vaccine (for safety outcomes), or age-eligible to have received three doses (for impact outcomes), to that in non-eligible age groups in implementation areas with the equivalent ratio in comparison areas. To establish whether there was evidence of a difference between girls and boys in the vaccine's impact on mortality, the female-to-male mortality ratio in age groups eligible to receive the vaccine (relative to the ratio in non-eligible children) was compared between implementation and comparison areas. Preliminary findings contributed to WHO's recommendation in 2021 for widespread use of RTS,S in areas of moderate-to-high malaria transmission.FindingsBy April 30, 2021, 652 673 children had received at least one dose of RTS,S and 494 745 children had received three doses. Coverage of the first dose was 76% in Ghana, 79% in Kenya, and 73% in Malawi, and coverage of the third dose was 66% in Ghana, 62% in Kenya, and 62% in Malawi. 26 285 children aged 1-59 months were admitted to sentinel hospitals and 13 198 deaths were reported through mortality surveillance. Among children eligible to have received at least one dose of RTS,S, there was no evidence of an excess of meningitis or cerebral malaria cases in implementation areas compared with comparison areas (hospital admission with meningitis: IRR 0·63 [95% CI 0·22-1·79]; hospital admission with cerebral malaria: IRR 1·03 [95% CI 0·61-1·74]). The impact of RTS,S introduction on mortality was similar for girls and boys (relative mortality ratio 1·03 [95% CI 0·88-1·21]). Among children eligible for three vaccine doses, RTS,S introduction was associated with a 32% reduction (95% CI 5-51%) in hospital admission with severe malaria, and a 9% reduction (95% CI 0-18%) in all-cause mortality (excluding injury).InterpretationIn the first 2 years of implementation of RTS,S, the three primary doses were effectively deployed through national immunisation programmes. There was no evidence of the safety signals that had been observed in the phase 3 trial, and introduction of the vaccine was associated with substantial reductions in hospital admission with severe malaria. Evaluation continues to assess the impact of four doses of RTS,S.FundingGavi, the Vaccine Alliance; the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria; and Unitaid.
Risk factors for inadequate and excessive gestational weight gain in 25 low- and middle-income countries: An individual-level participant meta-analysis.
BackgroundMany women experience suboptimal gestational weight gain (GWG) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), but our understanding of risk factors associated with GWG in these settings is limited. We investigated the relationships between demographic, anthropometric, lifestyle, and clinical factors and GWG in prospectively collected data from LMICs.Methods and findingsWe conducted an individual participant-level meta-analysis of risk factors for GWG outcomes among 138,286 pregnant women with singleton pregnancies in 55 studies (27 randomized controlled trials and 28 prospective cohorts from 25 LMICs). Data sources were identified through PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science searches for articles published from January 2000 to March 2019. Titles and abstracts of articles identified in all databases were independently screened by 2 team members according to the following eligibility criteria: following inclusion criteria: (1) GWG data collection took place in an LMIC; (2) the study was a prospective cohort or randomized trial; (3) study participants were pregnant; and (4) the study was not conducted exclusively among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected women or women with other health conditions that could limit the generalizability of the results. The Institute of Medicine (IOM) body mass index (BMI)-specific guidelines were used to determine the adequacy of GWG, which we calculated as the ratio of the total observed weight gain over the mean recommended weight gain. Study outcomes included severely inadequate GWG (percent adequacy of GWG <70), inadequate GWG (percent adequacy of GWG <90, inclusive of severely inadequate), and excessive GWG (percent adequacy of GWG >125). Multivariable estimates from each study were pooled using fixed-effects meta-analysis. Study-specific regression models for each risk factor included all other demographic risk factors measured in a particular study as potential confounders, as well as BMI, maternal height, pre-pregnancy smoking, and chronic hypertension. Risk factors occurring during pregnancy were further adjusted for receipt of study intervention (if any) and 3-month calendar period. The INTERGROWTH-21st standard was used to define high and low GWG among normal weight women in a sensitivity analysis. The prevalence of inadequate GWG was 54%, while the prevalence of excessive weight gain was 22%. In multivariable models, factors that were associated with a higher risk of inadequate GWG included short maternal stature (<145 cm), tobacco smoking, and HIV infection. A mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) of ≥28.1 cm was associated with the largest increase in risk for excessive GWG (risk ratio (RR) 3.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) [2.86, 3.19]). The estimated pooled difference in absolute risk between those with MUAC of ≥28.1 cm compared to those with a MUAC of 24 to 28.09 cm was 5.8% (95% CI 3.1% to 8.4%). Higher levels of education and age <20 years were also associated with an increased risk of excessive GWG. Results using the INTERGROWTH-21st standard among normal weight women were similar but attenuated compared to the results using the IOM guidelines among normal weight women. Limitations of the study's methodology include differences in the availability of risk factors and potential confounders measured in each individual dataset; not all risk factors or potential confounders of interest were available across datasets and data on potential confounders collected across studies.ConclusionsInadequate GWG is a significant public health concern in LMICs. We identified diverse nutritional, behavioral, and clinical risk factors for inadequate GWG, highlighting the need for integrated approaches to optimizing GWG in LMICs. The prevalence of excessive GWG suggests that attention to the emerging burden of excessive GWG in LMICs is also warranted.
Distinct clinical symptom patterns in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in an analysis of 59,011 patients in the ISARIC-4C study.
COVID-19 is clinically characterised by fever, cough, and dyspnoea. Symptoms affecting other organ systems have been reported. However, it is the clinical associations of different patterns of symptoms which influence diagnostic and therapeutic decision-making. In this study, we applied clustering techniques to a large prospective cohort of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 to identify clinically meaningful sub-phenotypes. We obtained structured clinical data on 59,011 patients in the UK (the ISARIC Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium, 4C) and used a principled, unsupervised clustering approach to partition the first 25,477 cases according to symptoms reported at recruitment. We validated our findings in a second group of 33,534 cases recruited to ISARIC-4C, and in 4,445 cases recruited to a separate study of community cases. Unsupervised clustering identified distinct sub-phenotypes. First, a core symptom set of fever, cough, and dyspnoea, which co-occurred with additional symptoms in three further patterns: fatigue and confusion, diarrhoea and vomiting, or productive cough. Presentations with a single reported symptom of dyspnoea or confusion were also identified, alongside a sub-phenotype of patients reporting few or no symptoms. Patients presenting with gastrointestinal symptoms were more commonly female, had a longer duration of symptoms before presentation, and had lower 30-day mortality. Patients presenting with confusion, with or without core symptoms, were older and had a higher unadjusted mortality. Symptom sub-phenotypes were highly consistent in replication analysis within the ISARIC-4C study. Similar patterns were externally verified in patients from a study of self-reported symptoms of mild disease. The large scale of the ISARIC-4C study enabled robust, granular discovery and replication. Clinical interpretation is necessary to determine which of these observations have practical utility. We propose that four sub-phenotypes are usefully distinct from the core symptom group: gastro-intestinal disease, productive cough, confusion, and pauci-symptomatic presentations. Importantly, each is associated with an in-hospital mortality which differs from that of patients with core symptoms.
Safety and efficacy of malaria vaccine candidate R21/Matrix-M in African children: a multicentre, double-blind, randomised, phase 3 trial.
BackgroundRecently, we found that a new malaria vaccine, R21/Matrix-M, had over 75% efficacy against clinical malaria with seasonal administration in a phase 2b trial in Burkina Faso. Here, we report on safety and efficacy of the vaccine in a phase 3 trial enrolling over 4800 children across four countries followed for up to 18 months at seasonal sites and 12 months at standard sites.MethodsWe did a double-blind, randomised, phase 3 trial of the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine across five sites in four African countries with differing malaria transmission intensities and seasonality. Children (aged 5-36 months) were enrolled and randomly assigned (2:1) to receive 5 μg R21 plus 50 μg Matrix-M or a control vaccine (licensed rabies vaccine [Abhayrab]). Participants, their families, investigators, laboratory teams, and the local study team were masked to treatment. Vaccines were administered as three doses, 4 weeks apart, with a booster administered 12 months after the third dose. Half of the children were recruited at two sites with seasonal malaria transmission and the remainder at standard sites with perennial malaria transmission using age-based immunisation. The primary objective was protective efficacy of R21/Matrix-M from 14 days after third vaccination to 12 months after completion of the primary series at seasonal and standard sites separately as co-primary endpoints. Vaccine efficacy against multiple malaria episodes and severe malaria, as well as safety and immunogenicity, were also assessed. This trial is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04704830, and is ongoing.FindingsFrom April 26, 2021, to Jan 12, 2022, 5477 children consented to be screened, of whom 1705 were randomly assigned to control vaccine and 3434 to R21/Matrix-M; 4878 participants received the first dose of vaccine. 3103 participants in the R21/Matrix-M group and 1541 participants in the control group were included in the modified per-protocol analysis (2412 [51·9%] male and 2232 [48·1%] female). R21/Matrix-M vaccine was well tolerated, with injection site pain (301 [18·6%] of 1615 participants) and fever (754 [46·7%] of 1615 participants) as the most frequent adverse events. Number of adverse events of special interest and serious adverse events did not significantly differ between the vaccine groups. There were no treatment-related deaths. 12-month vaccine efficacy was 75% (95% CI 71-79; p<0·0001) at the seasonal sites and 68% (61-74; p<0·0001) at the standard sites for time to first clinical malaria episode. Similarly, vaccine efficacy against multiple clinical malaria episodes was 75% (71-78; p<0·0001) at the seasonal sites and 67% (59-73; p<0·0001) at standard sites. A modest reduction in vaccine efficacy was observed over the first 12 months of follow-up, of similar size at seasonal and standard sites. A rate reduction of 868 (95% CI 762-974) cases per 1000 children-years at seasonal sites and 296 (231-362) at standard sites occurred over 12 months. Vaccine-induced antibodies against the conserved central Asn-Ala-Asn-Pro (NANP) repeat sequence of circumsporozoite protein correlated with vaccine efficacy. Higher NANP-specific antibody titres were observed in the 5-17 month age group compared with 18-36 month age group, and the younger age group had the highest 12-month vaccine efficacy on time to first clinical malaria episode at seasonal (79% [95% CI 73-84]; p<0·001) and standard (75% [65-83]; p<0·001) sites.InterpretationR21/Matrix-M was well tolerated and offered high efficacy against clinical malaria in African children. This low-cost, high-efficacy vaccine is already licensed by several African countries, and recently received a WHO policy recommendation and prequalification, offering large-scale supply to help reduce the great burden of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa.FundingThe Serum Institute of India, the Wellcome Trust, the UK National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, and Open Philanthropy.