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The Oxford University Science Blog features a Q&A with Professor Trudie Lang, who heads the Global Health Network. The interview discusses why it is important to build research capacity in places where research doesn't normally happen, and how the response to Zika outbreak has learnt from the Ebola clinical trials.
Facilitating Safe Discharge Through Predicting Disease Progression in Moderate Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Prospective Cohort Study to Develop and Validate a Clinical Prediction Model in Resource-Limited Settings
Abstract Background In locations where few people have received coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines, health systems remain vulnerable to surges in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections. Tools to identify patients suitable for community-based management are urgently needed. Methods We prospectively recruited adults presenting to 2 hospitals in India with moderate symptoms of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 to develop and validate a clinical prediction model to rule out progression to supplemental oxygen requirement. The primary outcome was defined as any of the following: SpO2 < 94%; respiratory rate > 30 BPM; SpO2/FiO2 < 400; or death. We specified a priori that each model would contain three clinical parameters (age, sex, and SpO2) and 1 of 7 shortlisted biochemical biomarkers measurable using commercially available rapid tests (C-reactive protein [CRP], D-dimer, interleukin 6 [IL-6], neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio [NLR], procalcitonin [PCT], soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cell-1 [sTREM-1], or soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor [suPAR]), to ensure the models would be suitable for resource-limited settings. We evaluated discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility of the models in a held-out temporal external validation cohort. Results In total, 426 participants were recruited, of whom 89 (21.0%) met the primary outcome; 257 participants comprised the development cohort, and 166 comprised the validation cohort. The 3 models containing NLR, suPAR, or IL-6 demonstrated promising discrimination (c-statistics: 0.72–0.74) and calibration (calibration slopes: 1.01–1.05) in the validation cohort and provided greater utility than a model containing the clinical parameters alone. Conclusions We present 3 clinical prediction models that could help clinicians identify patients with moderate COVID-19 suitable for community-based management. The models are readily implementable and of particular relevance for locations with limited resources.
Routine Antenatal Echocardiography in High-Prevalence Areas of Rheumatic Heart Disease: A WHO-Guideline Systematic Review.
BackgroundRheumatic Heart Disease (RHD) is the most common cause of valvular heart disease worldwide. Undiagnosed or untreated RHD can complicate pregnancy and lead to poor maternal and fetal outcomes and is a significant factor in non-obstetric morbidity. Echocardiography has an emerging role in screening for RHD. We aimed to critically analyse the evidence on the use of echocardiography for screening pregnant women for RHD in high-prevalence areas.MethodsWe searched MEDLINE and Embase to identify the relevant reports. Two independent reviewers assessed the reports against the eligibility criteria in a double-blind process.ResultsThe searches (date: 4 April 2023) identified 432 records for screening. Ten non-controlled observational studies were identified, five using portable or handheld echocardiography, comprising data from 23,166 women. Prevalence of RHD varied across the studies, ranging from 0.4 to 6.6% (I2, heterogeneity >90%). Other cardiac abnormalities (e.g., congenital heart disease and left ventricular systolic dysfunction) were also detected <1% to 2% of cases. Certainty of evidence was very low.ConclusionEchocardiography as part of antenatal care in high-prevalence areas may detect RHD or other cardiac abnormalities in asymptomatic pregnant women, potentially reducing the rates of disease progression and adverse labor-associated outcomes. However, this evidence is affected by the low certainty of evidence, and lack of studies comparing echocardiography versus standard antenatal care.Prospective registrationPROSPERO 2022 July 4; CRD42022344081 Available from: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=344081.Research question'In areas with a high prevalence of rheumatic heart disease, should handheld echocardiography be added to routine antenatal care?'
Scoping review protocol on research prioritisation for preparedness and response to outbreaks of high consequence pathogens
Background Prioritisation of research activities for infectious disease pathogens is usually undertaken through the identification of important research and knowledge gaps. Research prioritisation is an essential element of both effective responses to disease outbreaks and adequate preparedness. There is however currently no published mapping of activities on and evidence from research prioritisation for high consequence pathogens. The objectives of this review are to map all published research prioritisation exercises on high-consequence pathogens; provide an overview of methodologies employed for prioritising research for these pathogens; describe monitoring and evaluation processes for research areas prioritised; and identify any standards and guidance for effectively undertaking research prioritisation activities for high consequence pathogens. Methods The Joanna Briggs Institute guidance of scoping review conduct will be used. The search will be undertaken using the key terms of “research prioritisation”, “response”, “control”, and related terms, and a list of high-consequence pathogens derived from WHO (2020), EMERGE (2019), Europe CDC (2022) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (2021). We will search WHO Global Index Medicus; Ovid Medline; Ovid Embase; Ovid Global Health; and Scopus. Backward citations review of the included full text documents will also be conducted. Google Scholar and Overton will be searched for grey literature. Two independent reviewers will screen the retrieved documents using Rayyan and extract data in a data extraction template in Microsoft Excel 2021. Screening results will be presented using the PRISMA-ScR template with narrative synthesis undertaken for the extracted data. Conclusion This review will map existing research priorities for high consequence pathogens. Further, it will provide an understanding of methodologies used for prioritisation, processes for monitoring and evaluation of progress made against research agendas, and evidence on standards that could be recommended for effective prioritisation of research for high consequence pathogens.
Blood transfusion in the care of patients with visceral leishmaniasis: a review of practices in therapeutic efficacy studies.
Blood transfusion remains an important aspect of patient management in visceral leishmaniasis (VL). However, transfusion triggers considered are poorly understood. This review summarises the transfusion practices adopted in VL efficacy studies using the Infectious Diseases Data Observatory VL clinical trials library. Of the 160 studies (1980-2021) indexed in the IDDO VL library, description of blood transfusion was presented in 16 (10.0%) (n=3459 patients) studies. Transfusion was initiated solely based on haemoglobin (Hb) measurement in nine studies, combining Hb measurement with an additional condition (epistaxis/poor health/clinical instability) in three studies and the criteria was not mentioned in four studies. The Hb threshold range for triggering transfusion was 3-8 g/dL. The number of patients receiving transfusion was explicitly reported in 10 studies (2421 patients enrolled, 217 underwent transfusion). The median proportion of patients who received transfusion in a study was 8.0% (Interquartile range: 4.7% to 47.2%; range: 0-100%; n=10 studies). Of the 217 patients requiring transfusion, 58 occurred before VL treatment initiation, 46 during the treatment/follow-up phase and the time was not mentioned in 113. This review describes the variation in clinical practice and is an important initial step in policy/guideline development, where both the patient's Hb concentration and clinical status must be considered.
Feasibility of wearable monitors to detect heart rate variability in children with hand, foot and mouth disease
AbstractHand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is caused by a variety of enteroviruses, and occurs in large outbreaks in which a small proportion of children deteriorate rapidly with cardiopulmonary failure. Determining which children are likely to deteriorate is difficult and health systems may become overloaded during outbreaks as many children require hospitalization for monitoring. Heart rate variability (HRV) may help distinguish those with more severe diseases but requires simple scalable methods to collect ECG data.We carried out a prospective observational study to examine the feasibility of using wearable devices to measure HRV in 142 children admitted with HFMD at a children’s hospital in Vietnam. ECG data were collected in all children. HRV indices calculated were lower in those with enterovirus A71 associated HFMD compared to those with other viral pathogens.HRV analysis collected from wearable devices is feasible in a low and middle income country (LMIC) and may help classify disease severity in HFMD.
Heart rate variability as an indicator of autonomic nervous system disturbance in tetanus
AbstractAutonomic nervous system dysfunction (ANSD) is a significant cause of mortality in tetanus. Currently diagnosis relies on non-specific clinical signs. Heart rate variability (HRV) may indicate underlying autonomic nervous system activity and represents a potentially valuable non-invasive tool for ANSD diagnosis in tetanus. HRV was measured from 3 5-minute ECG recordings during a 24-hour period in a cohort patients with severe tetanus, all receiving mechanical ventilation. HRV measurements from all subjects - 5 with ANSD (Ablett Grade 4) and 4 patients without ANSD (Ablett Grade 3) - showed HRV was lower than reported ranges for healthy individuals. Comparing different severities of tetanus, raw data for both time and frequency measurements of HRV were reduced in those with ANSD compared to those without. Differences were statistically significant in all except root mean square standard deviation RMSSD (p=0.07) indicating HRV may be a valuable tool in ANSD diagnosis.
New Tools and Nuanced Interventions to Accelerate Achievement of the 2030 Roadmap for Neglected Tropical Diseases
Abstract The World Health Organization roadmap for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) sets out ambitious targets for disease control and elimination by 2030, including 90% fewer people requiring interventions against NTDs and the elimination of at least 1 NTD in 100 countries. Mathematical models are an important tool for understanding NTD dynamics, optimizing interventions, assessing the efficacy of new tools, and estimating the economic costs associated with control programs. As NTD control shifts to increased country ownership and programs progress toward disease elimination, tailored models that better incorporate local context and can help to address questions that are important for decision-making at the national level are gaining importance. In this introduction to the supplement, New Tools and Nuanced Interventions to Accelerate Achievement of the 2030 Roadmap for Neglected Tropical Diseases, we discuss current challenges in generating more locally relevant models and summarize how the articles in this supplement present novel ways in which NTD modeling can help to accelerate achievement and sustainability of the 2030 targets.
Accelerating Progress Towards the 2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases Targets: How Can Quantitative Modeling Support Programmatic Decisions?
Abstract Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made in the control, elimination, and eradication of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Despite these advances, most NTD programs have recently experienced important setbacks; for example, NTD interventions were some of the most frequently and severely impacted by service disruptions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modeling can help inform selection of interventions to meet the targets set out in the NTD road map 2021–2030, and such studies should prioritize questions that are relevant for decision-makers, especially those designing, implementing, and evaluating national and subnational programs. In September 2022, the World Health Organization hosted a stakeholder meeting to identify such priority modeling questions across a range of NTDs and to consider how modeling could inform local decision making. Here, we summarize the outputs of the meeting, highlight common themes in the questions being asked, and discuss how quantitative modeling can support programmatic decisions that may accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.
Temporal changes in SARS-CoV-2 clearance kinetics and the optimal design of antiviral pharmacodynamic studies: an individual patient data meta-analysis of a randomised, controlled, adaptive platform study (PLATCOV).
BackgroundEffective antiviral drugs prevent hospitalisation and death from COVID-19. Antiviral efficacy can be efficiently assessed in vivo by measuring rates of SARS-CoV-2 clearance estimated from serial viral genome densities quantitated in nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swab eluates. We conducted an individual patient data meta-analysis of unblinded arms in the PLATCOV platform trial to characterise changes in viral clearance kinetics and infer optimal design and interpretation of antiviral pharmacometric evaluations.MethodsSerial viral density data were analysed from symptomatic, previously healthy, adult patients (within 4 days of symptom onset) enrolled in a large multicentre, randomised, adaptive, pharmacodynamic, platform trial (PLATCOV) comparing antiviral interventions for SARS-CoV-2. Viral clearance rates over 1 week were estimated under a hierarchical Bayesian linear model with B-splines used to characterise temporal changes in enrolment viral densities and clearance rates. Bootstrap re-sampling was used to assess the optimal duration of follow-up for pharmacometric assessment, where optimal was defined as maximising the expected Z score when comparing effective antivirals with no treatment. PLATCOV is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05041907.FindingsBetween Sept 29, 2021, and Oct 20, 2023, 1262 patients were randomly assigned in the PLATCOV trial. Unblinded data were available from 800 patients (who provided 16 818 oropharyngeal viral quantitative PCR [qPCR] measurements), of whom 504 (63%) were female. 783 (98%) patients had received at least one vaccine dose and 703 (88%) were fully vaccinated. SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance was biphasic (bi-exponential). The first phase (α) was accelerated by effective interventions. For all the effective interventions studied, maximum discriminative power (maximum expected Z score) was obtained when evaluating serial data from the first 5 days after enrolment. Over the 2-year period studied, median viral clearance half-lives estimated over 7 days shortened from 16·6 h (IQR 15·3 to 18·2) in September, 2021, to 9·2 h (8·0 to 10·6) in October, 2023, in patients receiving no antiviral drugs, equivalent to a relative reduction of 44% (95% credible interval [CrI] 19 to 64). A parallel reduction in viral clearance half-lives over time was observed in patients receiving antiviral drugs. For example, in the 158 patients assigned to ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir (3380 qPCR measurements), the median viral clearance half-life reduced from 6·4 h (IQR 5·7 to 7·3) in June, 2022, to 4·8 h (4·2 to 5·5) in October, 2023, a relative reduction of 26% (95% CrI -4 to 42).InterpretationSARS-CoV-2 viral clearance kinetics in symptomatic, vaccinated individuals accelerated substantially over 2 years of the pandemic, necessitating a change to how new SARS-CoV-2 antivirals are compared (ie, shortening the period of pharmacodynamic assessment). As of writing (October, 2023), antiviral efficacy in COVID-19 can be efficiently assessed in vivo using serial qPCRs from duplicate oropharyngeal swab eluates taken daily for 5 days after drug administration.FundingWellcome Trust.
Specific plasma microRNAs are associated with CD4+ T-cell recovery during suppressive antiretroviral therapy for HIV-1.
ObjectiveThis study investigated the association of plasma microRNAs before and during antiretroviral therapy (ART) with poor CD4+ T-cell recovery during the first year of ART.DesignMicroRNAs were retrospectively measured in stored plasma samples from people with HIV (PWH) in sub-Saharan Africa who were enrolled in a longitudinal multicountry cohort and who had plasma viral-load less than 50 copies/ml after 12 months of ART.MethodsFirst, the levels of 179 microRNAs were screened in a subset of participants from the lowest and highest tertiles of CD4+ T-cell recovery (ΔCD4) (N = 12 each). Next, 11 discordant microRNAs, were validated in 113 participants (lowest tertile ΔCD4: n = 61, highest tertile ΔCD4: n = 52). For discordant microRNAs in the validation, a pathway analysis was conducted. Lastly, we compared microRNA levels of PWH to HIV-negative controls.ResultsPoor CD4+ T-cell recovery was associated with higher levels of hsa-miR-199a-3p and hsa-miR-200c-3p before ART, and of hsa-miR-17-5p and hsa-miR-501-3p during ART. Signaling by VEGF and MET, and RNA polymerase II transcription pathways were identified as possible targets of hsa-miR-199a-3p, hsa-200c-3p, and hsa-miR-17-5p. Compared with HIV-negative controls, we observed lower hsa-miR-326, hsa-miR-497-5p, and hsa-miR-501-3p levels before and during ART in all PWH, and higher hsa-miR-199a-3p and hsa-miR-200c-3p levels before ART in all PWH, and during ART in PWH with poor CD4+ T-cell recovery only.ConclusionThese findings add to the understanding of pathways involved in persistent HIV-induced immune dysregulation during suppressive ART.
Exploring the pediatric nasopharyngeal bacterial microbiota with culture-based MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry and targeted metagenomic sequencing.
UNLABELLED: The nasopharynx is an important reservoir of disease-associated and antimicrobial-resistant bacterial species. This proof-of-concept study assessed the utility of a combined culture, matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS), and targeted metagenomic sequencing workflow for the study of the pediatric nasopharyngeal bacterial microbiota. Nasopharyngeal swabs and clinical metadata were collected from Cambodian children during a hospital outpatient visit and then biweekly for 12 weeks. Swabs were cultured on chocolate and blood-gentamicin agar, and all colony morphotypes were identified by MALDI-TOF MS. Metagenomic sequencing was done on a scrape of all colonies from a chocolate agar culture and processed using the mSWEEP pipeline. One hundred one children were enrolled, yielding 620 swabs. MALDI-TOF MS identified 106 bacterial species/40 genera: 20 species accounted for 88.5% (2,190/2,474) of isolates. Colonization by Moraxella catarrhalis (92.1% of children on ≥1 swab), Haemophilus influenzae (87.1%), and Streptococcus pneumoniae (83.2%) was particularly common. In S. pneumoniae-colonized children, a median of two serotypes [inter-quartile range (IQR) 1-2, range 1-4] was detected. For the 21 bacterial species included in the mSWEEP database and identifiable by MALDI-TOF, detection by culture + MALDI-TOF MS and culture + mSWEEP was highly concordant with a median species-level agreement of 96.9% (IQR 86.8%-98.8%). mSWEEP revealed highly dynamic lineage-level colonization patterns for S. pneumoniae which were quite different to those for S. aureus. A combined culture, MALDI-TOF MS, targeted metagenomic sequencing approach for the exploration of the young child nasopharyngeal microbiome was technically feasible, and each component yielded complementary data. IMPORTANCE: The human upper respiratory tract is an important source of disease-causing and antibiotic-resistant bacteria. However, understanding the interactions and stability of these bacterial populations is technically challenging. We used a combination of approaches to determine colonization patterns over a 3-month period in 101 Cambodian children. The combined approach was feasible to implement, and each component gave complementary data to enable a better understanding of the complex patterns of bacterial colonization.