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A highly drug resistant malaria "superbug" from western Cambodia is now present in southern Vietnam, leading to alarming failure rates for dihydroartemisinin (DHA)-piperaquine — Vietnam’s national first-line malaria treatment, leading malaria scientists warn.
Hypothermia amongst neonatal admissions in Kenya: a retrospective cohort study assessing prevalence, trends, associated factors, and its relationship with all-cause neonatal mortality.
BackgroundReports on hypothermia from high-burden countries like Kenya amongst sick newborns often include few centers or relatively small sample sizes.ObjectivesThis study endeavored to describe: (i) the burden of hypothermia on admission across 21 newborn units in Kenya, (ii) any trend in prevalence of hypothermia over time, (iii) factors associated with hypothermia at admission, and (iv) hypothermia's association with inpatient neonatal mortality.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was conducted from January 2020 to March 2023, focusing on small and sick newborns admitted in 21 NBUs. The primary and secondary outcome measures were the prevalence of hypothermia at admission and mortality during the index admission, respectively. An ordinal logistic regression model was used to estimate the relationship between selected factors and the outcomes cold stress (36.0°C-36.4°C) and hypothermia (<36.0°C). Factors associated with neonatal mortality, including hypothermia defined as body temperature below 36.0°C, were also explored using logistic regression.ResultsA total of 58,804 newborns from newborn units in 21 study hospitals were included in the analysis. Out of these, 47,999 (82%) had their admission temperature recorded and 8,391 (17.5%) had hypothermia. Hypothermia prevalence decreased over the study period while admission temperature documentation increased. Significant associations were found between low birthweight and very low (0-3) APGAR scores with hypothermia at admission. Odds of hypothermia reduced as ambient temperature and month of participation in the Clinical Information Network (a collaborative learning health platform for healthcare improvement) increased. Hypothermia at admission was associated with 35% (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.22, 1.50) increase in odds of neonatal inpatient death.ConclusionsA substantial proportion of newborns are admitted with hypothermia, indicating a breakdown in warm chain protocols after birth and intra-hospital transport that increases odds of mortality. Urgent implementation of rigorous warm chain protocols, particularly for low-birth-weight babies, is crucial to protect these vulnerable newborns from the detrimental effects of hypothermia.
Person-centred interventions to improve patient-provider relationships for HIV services in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.
IntroductionPerson-centred care (PCC) has been recognized as a critical element in delivering quality and responsive health services. The patient-provider relationship, conceptualized at the core of PCC in multiple models, remains largely unexamined in HIV care. We conducted a systematic review to better understand the types of PCC interventions implemented to improve patient-provider interactions and how these interventions have improved HIV care continuum outcomes and person-reported outcomes (PROs) among people living with HIV in low- and middle-income countries.MethodsWe searched databases, conference proceedings and conducted manual targeted searches to identify randomized trials and observational studies published up to January 2023. The PCC search terms were guided by the Integrative Model of Patient-Centeredness by Scholl. We included person-centred interventions aiming to enhance the patient-provider interactions. We included HIV care continuum outcomes and PROs.ResultsWe included 28 unique studies: 18 (64.3%) were quantitative, eight (28.6.%) were mixed methods and two (7.1%) were qualitative. Within PCC patient-provider interventions, we inductively identified five categories of PCC interventions: (1) providing friendly and welcoming services; (2) patient empowerment and improved communication skills (e.g. supporting patient-led skills such as health literacy and approaches when communicating with a provider); (3) improved individualized counselling and patient-centred communication (e.g. supporting provider skills such as training on motivational interviewing); (4) audit and feedback; and (5) provider sensitisation to patient experiences and identities. Among the included studies with a comparison arm and effect size reported, 62.5% reported a significant positive effect of the intervention on at least one HIV care continuum outcome, and 100% reported a positive effect of the intervention on at least one of the included PROs.DiscussionAmong published HIV PCC interventions, there is heterogeneity in the components of PCC addressed, the actors involved and the expected outcomes. While results are also heterogeneous across clinical and PROs, there is more evidence for significant improvement in PROs. Further research is necessary to better understand the clinical implications of PCC, with fewer studies measuring linkage or long-term retention or viral suppression.ConclusionsImproved understanding of PCC domains, mechanisms and consistency of measurement will advance PCC research and implementation.
Novel estimation of African swine fever transmission parameters within smallholder villages in Lao P.D.R.
African Swine Fever (ASF) disease transmission parameters are crucial for making response and control decisions when faced with an outbreak, yet they are poorly quantified for smallholder and village contexts within Southeast Asia. Whilst disease-specific factors - such as latent and infectious periods - should remain reasonably consistent, host, environmental and management factors are likely to affect the rate of disease spread. These differences are investigated using Approximate Bayesian Computation with Sequential Monte-Carlo methods to provide disease parameter estimates in four naïve pig populations in villages of Lao People's Democratic Republic. The villages represent smallholder pig farmers of the Northern province of Oudomxay and the Southern province of Savannakhet, and the model utilised field mortality data to validate the transmission parameter estimates over the course of multiple model generations. The basic reproductive number between-pigs was estimated to range from 3.08 to 7.80, whilst the latent and infectious periods were consistent with those published in the literature for similar genotypes in the region (4.72 to 6.19 days and 2.63 to 5.50 days, respectively). These findings demonstrate that smallholder village pigs interact similarly to commercial pigs, however the spread of disease may occur slightly slower than in commercial study groups. Furthermore, the findings demonstrated that despite diversity across the study groups, the disease behaved in a consistent manner. This data can be used in disease control programs or for future modelling of ASF in smallholder contexts.
Defining the role of host biomarkers in the diagnosis and prognosis of the severity of childhood pneumonia: a prospective cohort study
AbstractReliable tools to inform outpatient management of childhood pneumonia in resource-limited settings are needed. We investigated the value added by biomarkers of the host infection response to the performance of the Liverpool quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (LqSOFA), for triage of children presenting with pneumonia to a primary care clinic in a refugee camp on the Thailand-Myanmar border. 900 consecutive presentations of children aged ≤ 24 months meeting WHO pneumonia criteria were included. The primary outcome was receipt of supplemental oxygen. We compared discrimination of a clinical risk score (LqSOFA) to markers of endothelial injury (Ang-1, Ang-2, sFlt-1), immune activation (CHI3L1, IP-10, IL-1ra, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, sTNFR-1, sTREM-1), and inflammation (CRP, PCT), and quantified the net benefit of including biomarkers alongside LqSOFA. We evaluated the differential contribution of LqSOFA and host biomarkers to the diagnosis and prognosis of pneumonia severity. 49/900 (5.4%) presentations met the primary outcome. Discrimination of LqSOFA and Ang-2, the best performing biomarker, were comparable (AUC 0.82 [95% CI 0.76–0.88] and 0.81 [95% CI 0.74–0.87] respectively). Combining Ang-2 with LqSOFA improved discrimination (AUC 0.91; 95% CI 0.87–0.94; p < 0.001), and resulted in greater net benefit, with 10–30% fewer children who required oxygen supplementation incorrectly identified as safe for community-based management. Ang-2 had greater prognostic utility than LqSOFA to identify children requiring supplemental oxygen later in their illness course. Combining Ang-2 and LqSOFA could guide referrals of childhood pneumonia from resource-limited community settings. Further work on test development and integration into patient triage is required.
Target-enrichment sequencing yields valuable genomic data for challenging-to-culture bacteria of public health importance.
Genomic data contribute invaluable information to the epidemiological investigation of pathogens of public health importance. However, whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of bacteria typically relies on culture, which represents a major hurdle for generating such data for a wide range of species for which culture is challenging. In this study, we assessed the use of culture-free target-enrichment sequencing as a method for generating genomic data for two bacterial species: (1) Bacillus anthracis, which causes anthrax in both people and animals and whose culture requires high-level containment facilities; and (2) Mycoplasma amphoriforme, a fastidious emerging human respiratory pathogen. We obtained high-quality genomic data for both species directly from clinical samples, with sufficient coverage (>15×) for confident variant calling over at least 80% of the baited genomes for over two thirds of the samples tested. Higher qPCR cycle threshold (Ct) values (indicative of lower pathogen concentrations in the samples), pooling libraries prior to capture, and lower captured library concentration were all statistically associated with lower capture efficiency. The Ct value had the highest predictive value, explaining 52 % of the variation in capture efficiency. Samples with Ct values ≤30 were over six times more likely to achieve the threshold coverage than those with a Ct > 30. We conclude that target-enrichment sequencing provides a valuable alternative to standard WGS following bacterial culture and creates opportunities for an improved understanding of the epidemiology and evolution of many clinically important pathogens for which culture is challenging.
Penicillin Allergy Testing and Delabeling for Patients Who Are Prescribed Penicillin: A Systematic Review for a World Health Organization Guideline.
Secondary prevention with penicillin aims to prevent further episodes of acute rheumatic fever and subsequent development of rheumatic heart disease (RHD). Penicillin allergy, self-reported by 10% of the population, can affect secondary prevention programs. We aimed to assess the role for (i) routine penicillin allergy testing and the (ii) safety of penicillin allergy delabeling approaches in this context. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, CENTRAL, ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO ICTRP, ISRCTN, and CPCI-S to identify the relevant reports. We found 2419 records, but no studies addressed our initial question. Following advice from the WHO-Guideline committee and experts, we identified 6 manuscripts on allergy testing focusing on other populations showing that the prevalence of allergy confirmed by testing was low and the incidence of life-threatening reactions to BPG was very low (2 = 0%. No anaphylaxis or deaths were observed. Severe allergic reactions to penicillin are extremely rare and can be recognized and dealt by trained healthcare workers. Confirmation of penicillin allergy diagnosis or delabeling using direct oral drug challenge or penicillin skin testing seems to be safe and is associated with a low rate of adverse reactions.
Quality of Essential Medicines from Different Sources in Enugu and Anambra, Nigeria
This study investigated the quality of 13 essential medicines in the states of Enugu and Anambra, Nigeria. A total of 260 samples were purchased from licensed pharmaceutical manufacturers and wholesalers and from vendors in pharmaceutical markets with unclear licensing status. Samples were analyzed for identity, content, and dissolution according to the United States Pharmacopeia (USP) 42 monographs. Forty-five samples of this study could be examined for authenticity with the Mobile Authentication Service scheme of the Nigerian National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control. Out of all samples, 25.4% did not comply with the USP 42 specifications. Strikingly, 21 out of 22 dexamethasone tablet samples (95%) were out of specification (OOS). Nine out of 19 glibenclamide samples (47%) failed dissolution testing, and 7 out of 17 cotrimoxazole samples (41%) failed assay testing. Medicines against noncommunicable diseases showed a slightly higher percentage of OOS samples than anti-infectives (21.2% versus 17.6%). The rates of OOS samples were similar in medicines stated to be produced in Nigeria, India, and China but were very different between individual manufacturers from each of these countries of origin. Therefore, prequalification of products, manufacturers, and suppliers are very important for quality assurance in medicine procurement. Unexpectedly, the total proportions of OOS samples were similar from licensed vendors (25.2%) and from markets (25.5%). Four samples (1.5%), all collected in markets, were clearly falsified and did not contain the declared active pharmaceutical ingredients. The proportion of falsified medicines was found to be lower than frequently reported in the media for Nigeria.
Temporal changes in SARS-CoV-2 clearance kinetics and the optimal design of antiviral pharmacodynamic studies: an individual patient data meta-analysis of a randomised, controlled, adaptive platform study (PLATCOV).
BackgroundEffective antiviral drugs prevent hospitalisation and death from COVID-19. Antiviral efficacy can be efficiently assessed in vivo by measuring rates of SARS-CoV-2 clearance estimated from serial viral genome densities quantitated in nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swab eluates. We conducted an individual patient data meta-analysis of unblinded arms in the PLATCOV platform trial to characterise changes in viral clearance kinetics and infer optimal design and interpretation of antiviral pharmacometric evaluations.MethodsSerial viral density data were analysed from symptomatic, previously healthy, adult patients (within 4 days of symptom onset) enrolled in a large multicentre, randomised, adaptive, pharmacodynamic, platform trial (PLATCOV) comparing antiviral interventions for SARS-CoV-2. Viral clearance rates over 1 week were estimated under a hierarchical Bayesian linear model with B-splines used to characterise temporal changes in enrolment viral densities and clearance rates. Bootstrap re-sampling was used to assess the optimal duration of follow-up for pharmacometric assessment, where optimal was defined as maximising the expected Z score when comparing effective antivirals with no treatment. PLATCOV is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05041907.FindingsBetween Sept 29, 2021, and Oct 20, 2023, 1262 patients were randomly assigned in the PLATCOV trial. Unblinded data were available from 800 patients (who provided 16 818 oropharyngeal viral quantitative PCR [qPCR] measurements), of whom 504 (63%) were female. 783 (98%) patients had received at least one vaccine dose and 703 (88%) were fully vaccinated. SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance was biphasic (bi-exponential). The first phase (α) was accelerated by effective interventions. For all the effective interventions studied, maximum discriminative power (maximum expected Z score) was obtained when evaluating serial data from the first 5 days after enrolment. Over the 2-year period studied, median viral clearance half-lives estimated over 7 days shortened from 16·6 h (IQR 15·3 to 18·2) in September, 2021, to 9·2 h (8·0 to 10·6) in October, 2023, in patients receiving no antiviral drugs, equivalent to a relative reduction of 44% (95% credible interval [CrI] 19 to 64). A parallel reduction in viral clearance half-lives over time was observed in patients receiving antiviral drugs. For example, in the 158 patients assigned to ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir (3380 qPCR measurements), the median viral clearance half-life reduced from 6·4 h (IQR 5·7 to 7·3) in June, 2022, to 4·8 h (4·2 to 5·5) in October, 2023, a relative reduction of 26% (95% CrI -4 to 42).InterpretationSARS-CoV-2 viral clearance kinetics in symptomatic, vaccinated individuals accelerated substantially over 2 years of the pandemic, necessitating a change to how new SARS-CoV-2 antivirals are compared (ie, shortening the period of pharmacodynamic assessment). As of writing (October, 2023), antiviral efficacy in COVID-19 can be efficiently assessed in vivo using serial qPCRs from duplicate oropharyngeal swab eluates taken daily for 5 days after drug administration.FundingWellcome Trust.
Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
BackgroundLower respiratory infections (LRIs) are a major global contributor to morbidity and mortality. In 2020-21, non-pharmaceutical interventions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic reduced not only the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but also the transmission of other LRI pathogens. Tracking LRI incidence and mortality, as well as the pathogens responsible, can guide health-system responses and funding priorities to reduce future burden. We present estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 of the burden of non-COVID-19 LRIs and corresponding aetiologies from 1990 to 2021, inclusive of pandemic effects on the incidence and mortality of select respiratory viruses, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories.MethodsWe estimated mortality, incidence, and aetiology attribution for LRI, defined by the GBD as pneumonia or bronchiolitis, not inclusive of COVID-19. We analysed 26 259 site-years of mortality data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate LRI mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as household surveys, hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and LRI mortality estimates, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence and prevalence using DisMod-MR 2.1. For aetiology estimation, we analysed multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature data using a network analysis model to produce the proportion of LRI deaths and episodes attributable to the following pathogens: Acinetobacter baumannii, Chlamydia spp, Enterobacter spp, Escherichia coli, fungi, group B streptococcus, Haemophilus influenzae, influenza viruses, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Legionella spp, Mycoplasma spp, polymicrobial infections, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and other viruses (ie, the aggregate of all viruses studied except influenza and RSV), as well as a residual category of other bacterial pathogens.FindingsGlobally, in 2021, we estimated 344 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 325-364) incident episodes of LRI, or 4350 episodes (4120-4610) per 100 000 population, and 2·18 million deaths (1·98-2·36), or 27·7 deaths (25·1-29·9) per 100 000. 502 000 deaths (406 000-611 000) were in children younger than 5 years, among which 254 000 deaths (197 000-320 000) occurred in countries with a low Socio-demographic Index. Of the 18 modelled pathogen categories in 2021, S pneumoniae was responsible for the highest proportions of LRI episodes and deaths, with an estimated 97·9 million (92·1-104·0) episodes and 505 000 deaths (454 000-555 000) globally. The pathogens responsible for the second and third highest episode counts globally were other viral aetiologies (46·4 million [43·6-49·3] episodes) and Mycoplasma spp (25·3 million [23·5-27·2]), while those responsible for the second and third highest death counts were S aureus (424 000 [380 000-459 000]) and K pneumoniae (176 000 [158 000-194 000]). From 1990 to 2019, the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate declined by 41·7% (35·9-46·9), from 56·5 deaths (51·3-61·9) to 32·9 deaths (29·9-35·4) per 100 000. From 2019 to 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic and implementation of associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, we estimated a 16·0% (13·1-18·6) decline in the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate, largely accounted for by a 71·8% (63·8-78·9) decline in the number of influenza deaths and a 66·7% (56·6-75·3) decline in the number of RSV deaths.InterpretationSubstantial progress has been made in reducing LRI mortality, but the burden remains high, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, with its associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, global incident LRI cases and mortality attributable to influenza and RSV declined substantially. Expanding access to health-care services and vaccines, including S pneumoniae, H influenzae type B, and novel RSV vaccines, along with new low-cost interventions against S aureus, could mitigate the LRI burden and prevent transmission of LRI-causing pathogens.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care (UK).
Cost-effectiveness analysis of typhoid vaccination in Lao PDR.
BackgroundTyphoid vaccination has been shown to be an effective intervention to prevent enteric fever and is under consideration for inclusion in the national immunization program in Lao PDR.MethodsA cost-utility analysis was performed using an age-structured static decision tree model to estimate the costs and health outcomes of introducing TCV. Vaccination strategies combined with five delivery approaches in different age groups compared to no vaccination were considered from the societal perspective, using the Gavi price of 1.5 USD per dose. The vaccination program was considered to be cost-effective if the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was less than a threshold of 1 GDP per capita for Lao PDR, equivalent to USD 2,535 in 2020.ResultsIn the model, we estimated 172.2 cases of enteric fever, with 1.3 deaths and a total treatment cost of USD 7,244, based on a birth cohort of 164,662 births without TCV vaccination that was followed over their lifetime. To implement a TCV vaccination program over the lifetime horizon, the estimated cost of the vaccine and administration costs would be between USD 470,934 and USD 919,186. Implementation of the TCV vaccination program would prevent between 14 and 106 cases and 0.1 to 0.8 deaths. None of the vaccination programs appeared to be cost-effective.ConclusionsInclusion of TCV in the national vaccination program in Lao PDR would only be cost-effective if the true typhoid incidence is 25-times higher than our current estimate.
Decolonising global health: why the new Pandemic Agreement should have included the principle of subsidiarity.
The negotiations for the WHO Pandemic Agreement have brought attention to issues of racism and colonialism in global health. Although the agreement aims to promote global solidarity, it fails to address these deeply embedded problems. This Viewpoint argues that not including the principle of subsidiarity into Article 4 of the agreement as a pragmatic strategy was a missed opportunity to decolonise global health governance and promote global solidarity. Subsidiarity, as a structural principle, empowers local units to make decisions and address issues at their level, fostering collaboration, coordination, and cooperation. By integrating subsidiarity, the agreement could have ensured contextually appropriate responses, empowered local communities, and achieved justice in global health. This paper discusses the elements of subsidiarity-namely, agency and non-abandonment-and highlights the need to strike a balance between them. It also maps the principle of subsidiarity within the Pandemic Agreement, emphasising the importance of creating a practical framework for its implementation. By integrating subsidiarity into the agreement, a just and decolonialised approach to pandemic prevention and response could have been closer to being realised, promoting global solidarity and addressing health inequities.
The cyclical cascade of HIV care: Temporal care engagement trends within a population-wide cohort.
BackgroundThe traditional HIV treatment cascade aims to visualise the journey of each person living with HIV from diagnosis, through initiation on antiretroviral therapy (ART) to treatment success, represented by virological suppression. This representation has been a pivotal tool in highlighting and quantifying sequential gaps along the care continuum. There is longstanding recognition, however, that this may oversimplify the complexity of real-world engagement with HIV services in settings with mature high-burden HIV epidemics. A complementary "cyclical" cascade has been proposed to represent the processes of disengagement at different points on the care continuum, with multiple pathways to re-engagement, although the feasibility of implementing this at scale has been uncertain. This study aimed to populate, refine, and explore the utility of a cyclical representation of the HIV cascade, using routine data from a high-burden HIV setting.Methods and findingsThis observational cohort study leveraged person-level data on all people living with HIV in the Western Cape (WC), South Africa, who accessed public health services in the 2 years prior to 31 December 2023. Programme data from disease registers were complemented by data from pharmacy and laboratory systems. At study closure, 494 370 people were included, constituting 93% of those of those estimated to be living with HIV in the province, of whom 355 104 were on ART. Substantial disengagement from HIV care was evident at every point on the cascade. Early treatment emerged as a period of higher risk of disengagement, but it did not account for the majority of disengagement. Almost all those currently disengaged had prior experience of treatment. While re-engagement was also common, overall treatment coverage had increased slowly over 5 years. The transition to dolutegravir-based regimens was dramatic with good virological outcomes for those in care, notwithstanding a clearly discernible impact of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on viral load (VL) testing. People currently engaged and disengaged in care are similar with respect to age and gender. Those who died or disengaged recently were previously distributed across a range of cascade statuses, and a substantial proportion of those newly initiating and re-initiating treatment were no longer on treatment 6 months later. The main limitation of this study was incomplete evidence of HIV testing, linkage to HIV-specific services, and out-of-facility mortality.ConclusionsUsing routine data, it was possible to populate and automate a cyclical cascade of HIV care that continuously captured the nonlinear care journeys of individuals living with HIV. In this generalised mature HIV epidemic, most people are treatment experienced. Disengagement is common and occurs at various points along the cascade, making it challenging to identify high-impact intervention opportunities. While historical HIV cascades remain valuable for target setting and service monitoring, they can be complemented with insights from more detailed cyclical cascades.
Global burden associated with 85 pathogens in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.
BackgroundDespite a global epidemiological transition towards increased burden of non-communicable diseases, communicable diseases continue to cause substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide. Understanding the burden of a wide range of infectious diseases, and its variation by geography and age, is pivotal to research priority setting and resource mobilisation globally.MethodsWe estimated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with 85 pathogens in 2019, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. The term pathogen included causative agents, pathogen groups, infectious conditions, and aggregate categories. We applied a novel methodological approach to account for underlying, immediate, and intermediate causes of death, which counted every death for which a pathogen had a role in the pathway to death. We refer to this measure as the burden associated with infection, which was estimated by combining different sources of information. To compare the burden among all pathogens, we used pathogen-specific ratios to incorporate the burden of immediate and intermediate causes of death for pathogens modelled previously by the GBD. We created the ratios by using multiple cause of death data, hospital discharge data, linkage data, and minimally invasive tissue sampling data to estimate the fraction of deaths coming from the pathway to death chain. We multiplied the pathogen-specific ratios by age-specific years of life lost (YLLs), calculated with GBD 2019 methods, and then added the adjusted YLLs to age-specific years lived with disability (YLDs) from GBD 2019 to produce adjusted DALYs to account for deaths in the chain. We used standard GBD methods to calculate 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates of DALYs by taking the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles across 1000 posterior draws for each quantity of interest. We provided burden estimates pertaining to all ages and specifically to the under 5 years age group.FindingsGlobally in 2019, an estimated 704 million (95% UI 610-820) DALYs were associated with 85 different pathogens, including 309 million (250-377; 43·9% of the burden) in children younger than 5 years. This burden accounted for 27·7% (and 65·5% in those younger than 5 years) of the previously reported total DALYs from all causes in 2019. Comparing super-regions, considerable differences were observed in the estimated pathogen-associated burdens in relation to DALYs from all causes, with the highest burden observed in sub-Saharan Africa (314 million [270-368] DALYs; 61·5% of total regional burden) and the lowest in the high-income super-region (31·8 million [25·4-40·1] DALYs; 9·8%). Three leading pathogens were responsible for more than 50 million DALYs each in 2019: tuberculosis (65·1 million [59·0-71·2]), malaria (53·6 million [27·0-91·3]), and HIV or AIDS (52·1 million [46·6-60·9]). Malaria was the leading pathogen for DALYs in children younger than 5 years (37·2 million [17·8-64·2]). We also observed substantial burden associated with previously less recognised pathogens, including Staphylococcus aureus and specific Gram-negative bacterial species (ie, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Acinetobacter baumannii, and Helicobacter pylori). Conversely, some pathogens had a burden that was smaller than anticipated.InterpretationOur detailed breakdown of DALYs associated with a comprehensive list of pathogens on a global, regional, and country level has revealed the magnitude of the problem and helps to indicate where research funding mismatch might exist. Given the disproportionate impact of infection on low-income and middle-income countries, an essential next step is for countries and relevant stakeholders to address these gaps by making targeted investments.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund.
High adherence to intermittent and continuous use of a contraceptive vaginal ring among women in a randomized controlled trial in Kigali, Rwanda.
BackgroundThe introduction of female-initiated drug-delivery methods, including vaginal rings, have proven to be a promising avenue to address sexually transmitted infections and unintended pregnancies, which disproportionally affects women and girls in sub-Saharan Africa. Efficient uptake of existing and new technologies such as vaginal rings requires in depth understanding of product adherence. This remains a major challenge as data on adherence to vaginal rings from African countries is limited. In this study, we explored adherence of contraceptive vaginal ring (NuvaRing®) use in Kigali, Rwanda using a mixed methods approach.MethodsWe collected quantitative and qualitative data at multiple time points from women participating in a clinical trial exploring the safety and acceptability of either intermittent or continuous use of the NuvaRing®. Various adherence categories were used including monthly and cumulative adherence measurement. The quantitative data were analysed using R and the qualitative data were analysed using a deductive, content-analytical approach based on categories related to the quantitative adherence measures. All data were compared and triangulated.ResultsData from 120 enrolled participants showed that self-reported adherence was high at every study visit in both study groups. At first study visit 80% of the intermittent ring users and 79.7% of the continuous ring users reported perfect adherence (assessed as "the ring was never out"). Reporting of ring expulsions and removals were highest (28.3%) at the beginning of the trial. Self-reported perfect ring adherence increased during the study and reports of ring expulsions and removals declined as familiarity with this contraceptive method increased. The percentage of women with perfect cumulative adherence was non-significantly higher in the intermittent (61.7%) than in the continuous use group (54.3%). The low rate of discrepant adherence data after triangulation (6%) is in line with the perception of the participants as adherent throughout the study.ConclusionsSelf-reported adherence in both study groups was high with removals and expulsions being within the expected product range. Comprehensive adherence data triangulation allowed for a deeper understanding of context-driven behaviour that shaped adherence patterns and challenges. Our data categorisation and triangulation approach has shown potential for implementation in future vaginal ring studies aiming to better understand and measure adherence.
Clinical benefit of AI-assisted lung ultrasound in a resource-limited intensive care unit
Abstract Background Interpreting point-of-care lung ultrasound (LUS) images from intensive care unit (ICU) patients can be challenging, especially in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs) where there is limited training available. Despite recent advances in the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to automate many ultrasound imaging analysis tasks, no AI-enabled LUS solutions have been proven to be clinically useful in ICUs, and specifically in LMICs. Therefore, we developed an AI solution that assists LUS practitioners and assessed its usefulness in a low resource ICU. Methods This was a three-phase prospective study. In the first phase, the performance of four different clinical user groups in interpreting LUS clips was assessed. In the second phase, the performance of 57 non-expert clinicians with and without the aid of a bespoke AI tool for LUS interpretation was assessed in retrospective offline clips. In the third phase, we conducted a prospective study in the ICU where 14 clinicians were asked to carry out LUS examinations in 7 patients with and without our AI tool and we interviewed the clinicians regarding the usability of the AI tool. Results The average accuracy of beginners’ LUS interpretation was 68.7% [95% CI 66.8–70.7%] compared to 72.2% [95% CI 70.0–75.6%] in intermediate, and 73.4% [95% CI 62.2–87.8%] in advanced users. Experts had an average accuracy of 95.0% [95% CI 88.2–100.0%], which was significantly better than beginners, intermediate and advanced users (p < 0.001). When supported by our AI tool for interpreting retrospectively acquired clips, the non-expert clinicians improved their performance from an average of 68.9% [95% CI 65.6–73.9%] to 82.9% [95% CI 79.1–86.7%], (p < 0.001). In prospective real-time testing, non-expert clinicians improved their baseline performance from 68.1% [95% CI 57.9–78.2%] to 93.4% [95% CI 89.0–97.8%], (p < 0.001) when using our AI tool. The time-to-interpret clips improved from a median of 12.1 s (IQR 8.5–20.6) to 5.0 s (IQR 3.5–8.8), (p < 0.001) and clinicians’ median confidence level improved from 3 out of 4 to 4 out of 4 when using our AI tool. Conclusions AI-assisted LUS can help non-expert clinicians in an LMIC ICU improve their performance in interpreting LUS features more accurately, more quickly and more confidently.
Public healthcare system utilization for chronic hepatitis C infection in Vietnam.
BackgroundHealthcare utilization is typically adversely affected when the treatment is expensive and requires multiple visits. We examined the determinants of healthcare-seeking for Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection which is asymptomatic, chronic, and requires costly treatment in an urban tertiary care referral hospital in Vietnam.MethodsWe conducted a secondary analysis of hospital data for patients attending the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam between 2017 and 2020 specifically for HCV infection treatment. Poisson regression was used to determine the effect of personal factors (age, sex, comorbidities) and structural factors (health insurance, proximity to the facility, seasonality, year of visit) on the number of hospital visits.ResultsFrom 2017 to 2020 a total of 22,052 eligible patients sought treatment in the hospital. Among the patients, 50.4% were males and 58.7% were > 50 years of age. The mean number of visits per person was 2.17. In the multivariate analysis compared to 2017, the number of hospital visits increased by 4% in 2018 and then significantly decreased in 2019 and 2020. Visit numbers were significantly lower (6%) among South East region residents compared to those from Central Highlands and for those who lived further away from the hospital. The visit numbers were significantly higher among older age groups (5-11%), those with health insurance (6%), and those with comorbidities (5%) compared to others. Although the number of hospital visits by females was higher (7%) than males in 2017, it significantly decreased in subsequent years.ConclusionsOur study indicated that there are both structural and individual factors affecting the number of visits for HCV treatment. To meet the global strategy for elimination of HCV, Vietnam Government needs to address the structural and personal barriers to healthcare seeking, with a special focus on women.
On-target, dual aminopeptidase inhibition provides cross-species antimalarial activity.
To combat the global burden of malaria, development of new drugs to replace or complement current therapies is urgently required. Here, we show that the compound MMV1557817 is a selective, nanomolar inhibitor of both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax aminopeptidases M1 and M17, leading to inhibition of end-stage hemoglobin digestion in asexual parasites. MMV1557817 can kill sexual-stage P. falciparum, is active against murine malaria, and does not show any shift in activity against a panel of parasites resistant to other antimalarials. MMV1557817-resistant P. falciparum exhibited a slow growth rate that was quickly outcompeted by wild-type parasites and were sensitized to the current clinical drug, artemisinin. Overall, these results confirm MMV1557817 as a lead compound for further drug development and highlights the potential of dual inhibition of M1 and M17 as an effective multi-species drug-targeting strategy.IMPORTANCEEach year, malaria infects approximately 240 million people and causes over 600,000 deaths, mostly in children under 5 years of age. For the past decade, artemisinin-based combination therapies have been recommended by the World Health Organization as the standard malaria treatment worldwide. Their widespread use has led to the development of artemisinin resistance in the form of delayed parasite clearance, alongside the rise of partner drug resistance. There is an urgent need to develop and deploy new antimalarial agents with novel targets and mechanisms of action. Here, we report a new and potent antimalarial compound, known as MMV1557817, and show that it targets multiple stages of the malaria parasite lifecycle, is active in a preliminary mouse malaria model, and has a novel mechanism of action. Excitingly, resistance to MMV15578117 appears to be self-limiting, suggesting that development of the compound may provide a new class of antimalarial.
The PreQuine Platform: A novel diagnostic tool for measuring glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) activity and hemoglobin concentration.
Quantitative diagnosis of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency is essential for the safe administration of 8-aminoquinoline based radical cure for the treatment of Plasmodium vivax infections. Here, we present the PreQuine Platform (IVDS, USA), a quantitative biosensor that uses a dual-analyte assay for the simultaneous measurement of Hemoglobin (Hgb) levels and G6PD enzyme activity within the same sample. The platform relies on a downloadable mobile application. The device requires 10μl of whole blood and works with a reflectance-based meter. Comparing the G6PD measurement normalized by Hgb of 12 samples from the PreQuine Platform with reference measurements methods (spectrophotometry, Pointe Scientific, USA and hemoglobin meter, HemoCue, Sweden) showed a positive and significant agreement with a slope of 1.0091 and an intercept of -0.0379 under laboratory conditions. Next steps will be to conduct field trials in Bangladesh, Cambodia, and the USA to assess diagnostic performance, user friendliness and acceptance.
Investigating the spatiotemporal patterns and clustering of attendances for mental health services to inform policy and resource allocation in Thailand.
BackgroundMental illness poses a substantial global public health challenge, including in Thailand, where exploration of access to mental health services is limited. The spatial and temporal dimensions of mental illness in the country are not extensively studied, despite the recognized association between poor mental health and socioeconomic inequalities. Gaining insights into these dimensions is crucial for effective public health interventions and resource allocation.MethodsThis retrospective study analyzed mental health service utilization data in Thailand from 2015 to 2023. Temporal trends in annual numbers of individuals visiting mental health services by diagnosis were examined, while spatial pattern analysis employed Moran's I statistics to assess autocorrelation, identify small-area clustering, and hotspots. The implications of our findings for mental health resource allocation and policy were discussed.ResultsBetween 2015 and 2023, mental health facilities documented a total of 13,793,884 visits. The study found anxiety, schizophrenia, and depression emerged as the top three illnesses for mental health visits, with an increase in patient attendance following the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak. Spatial analysis identified areas of significance for various disorders across different regions of Thailand. Positive correlations between certain disorder pairs were found in specific regions, suggesting shared risk factors or comorbidities.ConclusionsThis study highlights spatial and temporal variations in individuals visiting services for different mental disorders in Thailand, shedding light on service gaps and socioeconomic issues. Addressing these disparities requires increased attention to mental health, the development of appropriate interventions, and overcoming barriers to accessibility. The findings provide a baseline for policymakers and stakeholders to allocate resources and implement culturally responsive interventions to improve mental health outcomes.