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ObjectivesTo propose a novel framework for COVID-19 vaccine allocation based on three components of Vulnerability, Vaccination, and Values (3Vs).MethodsA combination of geospatial data analysis and artificial intelligence methods for evaluating vulnerability factors at the local level and allocate vaccines according to a dynamic mechanism for updating vulnerability and vaccine uptake.ResultsA novel approach is introduced including (I) Vulnerability data collection (including country-specific data on demographic, socioeconomic, epidemiological, healthcare, and environmental factors), (II) Vaccination prioritization through estimation of a unique Vulnerability Index composed of a range of factors selected and weighed through an Artificial Intelligence (AI-enabled) expert elicitation survey and scientific literature screening, and (III) Values consideration by identification of the most effective GIS-assisted allocation of vaccines at the local level, considering context-specific constraints and objectives.ConclusionsWe showcase the performance of the 3Vs strategy by comparing it to the actual vaccination rollout in Kenya. We show that under the current strategy, socially vulnerable individuals comprise only 45% of all vaccinated people in Kenya while if the 3Vs strategy was implemented, this group would be the first to receive vaccines.

Original publication





PloS one

Publication Date





RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Milan, Italy.