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Historically, mpox has been characterized as an endemic zoonotic disease that transmits through contact with the reservoir rodent host in West and Central Africa. However, in May 2022, human cases of mpox were detected spreading internationally beyond countries with known endemic reservoirs. When the first cases from 2022 were sequenced, they shared 42 nucleotide differences from the closest mpox virus (MPXV) previously sampled. Nearly all these mutations are characteristic of the action of APOBEC3 deaminases, host enzymes with antiviral function. Assuming APOBEC3 editing is characteristic of human MPXV infection, we developed a dual-process phylogenetic molecular clock that-inferring a rate of ~6 APOBEC3 mutations per year-estimates that MPXV has been circulating in humans since 2016. These observations of sustained MPXV transmission present a fundamental shift to the perceived paradigm of MPXV epidemiology as a zoonosis and highlight the need for revising public health messaging around MPXV as well as outbreak management and control.

Original publication

DOI

10.1126/science.adg8116

Type

Journal

Science (New York, N.Y.)

Publication Date

11/2023

Volume

382

Pages

595 - 600

Addresses

Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK.

Keywords

Animals, Humans, Monkeypox virus, Zoonoses, Monkeypox, Disease Outbreaks, Phylogeny, APOBEC Deaminases