Paper published in Nature on 11th October 2017 by Professor Bob Snow.
The largest data repository of any parasitic disease in the world, it includes 7.8 million blood samples from more than 30,000 locations in 43 countries. The dataset was collected and analysed by KEMRI-Wellcome Trust researchers based in Kenya, and is the result of over 20 years of research funded by Wellcome.
The study shows that sub-Saharan Africa has experienced a decline in the prevalence of P. falciparum – a parasite that causes malaria - from 40% prevalence in children aged 2-10 years old between 1900 and 1929 to 24% prevalence in the same age group between 2010 and 2015. This trend has been interrupted by periods of rapidly increasing and decreasing transmission, thought to be the result of several contributing factors.
The study reveals that although previous global initiatives have contributed to an unprecedented decline in infection since 2000, reductions have not occurred uniformly throughout the continent, leaving large parts of West and Central Africa with high transmission rates of the disease.
The researchers argue that new tools are needed for the low income and high malaria burden areas of Africa, where gains in malaria reduction have stalled. The researchers identify several challenges to malaria control, including emerging insecticide and drug resistance, and inadequate funding plans for replacing long-lasting insecticide-treated nets.
Professor Bob Snow, Principal Investigator at the KEMRI Wellcome Trust Research Programme and the University of Oxford, said “The history of malaria risk in Africa is complex; there have been perfect lulls when drugs worked and droughts prevented mosquitos transmitting the infection, and there have been perfect storms when drugs stopped working and flooding affected large parts of Africa.”
“While there has been substantial progress in malaria reduction in Africa, on average 1 in 4 children still carry the malaria parasite in Africa and there are areas of the continent that haven’t changed much over the last 3 decades. Focusing just on elimination at the margins of Southern Africa, runs the risk that high burden countries in Africa get ignored and left behind. If insecticide and drug resistance becomes established, or excessive rainfall hits Africa again, malaria will revert in large parts of Africa to the high levels we saw in the 1990s. This is a real wakeup call, we need new drugs and insecticides or the gains we’ve seen will be lost.”
Co-Author Abdisalan Noor adds “Shown in context, the cycles and trend over the past 115 years are inconsistent with explanations in terms of climate or deliberate intervention alone. The role of socio-economic development, for example, remains poorly understood.”
Mary De Silva, Head of Population Health at Wellcome, said: “Malaria can be fatal if it isn’t diagnosed and treated promptly. The African region carries disproportionately high levels of infection risk; with over 90% of malaria cases and 92% of malaria deaths according to the 2016 WHO World Malaria Report.”
“This incredibly comprehensive study, the result of 21 years of research and hundreds of peoples’ contributions, is importantly now openly available for others to use. Working together, scientists can use these data to help us make sense of the changing nature of malaria in Africa and inform future responses”.
Read the publication: The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa since 1900